Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."